| Date | Ticker | Direction | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2026 | LONG | BHP earnings beat expectations. Crucially, for the first time ever, Copper accounted for >50% of group profits, overtaking Iron Ore. This signals the structural rotation from "Old Economy" (China construction/Iron Ore) to "New Economy" (Data Centers/Electrification/Copper). BHP is effectively repricing as a copper play, which commands a higher multiple than an iron ore play. LONG BHP as a proxy for global copper demand. A global recession dampens industrial metal demand; China stimulus fails completely. | ||
| Feb 17, 2026 | LONG | BHP reported earnings where Copper accounted for ~50% of profits for the first time. They are raising production guidance at Escondida and seeing strong contributions from byproducts (Gold, Silver, Uranium). This signals a successful structural re-rating from a "dirty" Iron Ore/Coal miner to a "future-facing" electrification metals play. The market typically assigns a higher multiple to copper exposure than iron ore. The failed bid for Anglo American suggests organic growth (like Escondida) is now the primary value driver. LONG BHP as a proxy for the copper super-cycle without the M&A execution risk. A sudden reversal in the "historic metals rally" or operational failures at Escondida. |